Nifty has seen a bearish breakdown from the rising trendline connecting the higher bottoms of November 2025 and December 2025, along with a close below the 50-EMA.
Nifty outlook: The coming session will be crucial, as sustained trading below the 25,900 level could open the door for further downside.
Nifty on Thursday fell for the fourth straight session and, in the process, breached its 50-day EMA (exponential moving average) for the first time in three months. The 50-pack index formed a large bearish candle on the daily chart and made lower-high lower low for the third straight session. The bullish Symmetrical Triangle breakout witnessed last Friday now stands negated, said analysts as they see scope for further selling ahead.
For the day, Nifty settled at 25,876.85, down 263.90 points or 1.01 per cent. It hit a high of 26,133.20 and low of 25,858.45 during the session.
Rajesh Bhosale, Equity Technical Analyst at Angel One said the index has seen a bearish breakdown from the rising trendline connecting the higher bottoms of November 2025 and December 2025, along with a close below the 50-EMA, which had acted as a strong support over the past couple of months.
“The coming session will be crucial, as sustained trading below the 25,900 level could open the door for further downside in the week ahead,” Bhosale said.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities took note of Nifty slipping below its rising trendline, saying it has increased bearish bets.
“Nifty closed below the 50 EMA for the first time in three months, signifying a bearish shift in the trend. A rising India VIX is also pointing to increased panic among market participants. Overall, the setup looks uncomfortable for the bulls. Selling pressure is likely to persist in the near term unless the Nifty moves back above 26,000. On the downside, the index might fall down towards 25,700 and 25,550,” he said.
Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities said Nifty forming a long bearish candle and moving below the immediate supports of 26,100-26.000 levels, which were previous swing lows and ascending trend line, is not a good sign. They signal more weakness in the short term, he said.
“The short-term trend of Nifty is weak. A decisive breakdown of the supports indicates a short-term reversal of trend on the downside. Next crucial lower supports to be watched around 25700. Immediate resistance is placed at 26,000,” he said.
Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research at Religare Broking said the earlier support in the form of the short-term 20-day DEMA, placed around 26,050, is likely to act as an immediate hurdle, followed by a stronger resistance near 26,300.
He advised traders to maintain strict risk management in existing short-term positions amid heightened volatility and wait for clearer directional cues.
Disclaimer: Moneywealth research provides stock market news for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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