Voda Idea stock outlook: According to a CLSA note, the Centre is likely to consider a partial waiver of interest, penalties and interest on penalties for Vi, that make up a bulk of the AGR dues.
Vodafone Idea share price today
Share price of Vodafone Idea (Vi) hit a fresh 15-month high of ₹12.20 gaining 3 per cent on the BSE in Tuesday’s intra-day trade amid heavy volumes.
Thus far in the month of December 2025, the stock price of the telecom services provider has rallied 22 per cent on expectations of higher waiver towards the adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues based on the recent positive developments around Vi’s AGR dues matter.
The Vodafone Idea stock now quotes at its highest level since September 18, 2024. It has nearly doubled or zoomed 99 per cent from its 52-week low of ₹6.12 touched on August 14, 2025.
At 12:25 PM; Vi share was trading 2 per cent higher at ₹12.10, as compared to 0.05 per cent fall in the BSE Sensex. A combined 700 million equity shares changed hands on the NSE and BSE.
Why was the telecom stock in focus?
Vi on November 11, 2025, in the Q2 earnings conference call said that the Hon’ble Supreme Court via its judgement dated October 27, 2025 and November 3, 2025 permitted the Government of India to reconsider and take an appropriate decision with reference to the additional AGR demand as well as to comprehensively reassessing and reconciling all AGR dues, including interest and penalty, up to the financial year 2016-17. The management said the company is in discussion with the Department of Telecommunication (DoT) for next steps on this matter.
On December 18, Vi informed that the company successfully raised ₹3,300 crore through the issuance of debentures issued by Vodafone Idea Telecom Infrastructure (VITIL), its subsidiary entity. The proceeds from this issuance will be utilised by VITIL to repay its payment obligations to Vi. This will enable Vi to bolster its capex and support business growth.
The fundraise saw strong interest exceeding the NCD issuance, from a diversified group of marquee investors, including large Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBCs), Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPs) and Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs). Vi further said the discussions relating to long-term debt raise to support capex are ongoing with banks.
Mutual funds increase stake in Vi during September quarter
Domestic mutual funds (MF) holding in Vi touched multi-quarter high during the July to September 2025 quarter (Q2FY26). According to the shareholding pattern, MF increased their holding in Vi to 4.55 per cent from 3.88 per cent in June 2025 quarter (Q1FY26). As on July 19, 2024, MF had held 6.12 per cent holding in Vi, data shows. Meanwhile, retail individual shareholders’ stake in Vi declined to 12.2 per cent in Q2FY26 from 12.78 per cent in Q1FY26.
Brokerages view on Vi
Analysts at JM Financial Institutional Securities said they continue to expect telcos’ FY25-28 average revenue per user (ARPU) to grow at 12 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) given the consolidated industry structure, to ensure a ‘3+1’ player market and higher ARPU requirement for Jio not only to justify its significant 5G capex but also given its announced IPO plan for H1CY26.
The brokerage firm maintained its ‘ADD’ rating on Vi, as it builds slightly higher waiver of AGR dues based on the recent positive developments around VIL’s AGR dues matter. However, currently, the stock trades above its anticipated target price of ₹11.5 per share.
Key monitorables that can pose upside risks to analyst’s estimates/valuation are relief from government dues either via higher waiver of AGR dues and/or allowing surrender of pre-2022 spectrum, conversion of more dues to equity and extension of moratorium. “The multiple sharp tariff hikes that can result in Vi’s blended ARPU being significantly above our estimate of ₹183/207/229 in FY26/27/28 vs. ₹167 in Q2FY26; and Vi’s subscriber growth being significantly above the our assumption of 1 per cent growth p.a. at 200/202/204mn in FY26/27/28 vs. 197mn in Q2FY26,” the brokerage firm said in the telecom sector update.
Meanwhile, the Centre is likely to consider a partial waiver of interest, penalties and interest on penalties for Vi, that make up a bulk of the AGR dues, said brokerage CLSA in a note on Thursday, December 18, adding that the relief may also include the government expanding a moratorium on AGR payments.
Moratorium of AGR payments alone would not be enough for the third largest carrier, the brokerage said, since relief on the entire AGR dues was crucial for the telco’s planned debt fund raise of $2-2.7 billion.
Disclaimer: Moneywealth research provides stock market news for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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