Private consumption, manufacturing power up growth, US tariff impact in H2 to be seen
With the economy growing at a higher than expected pace of 8.2% in the second quarter of the fiscal, expectations are that full year GDP growth would be at over 7%.
Official data released on Friday showed that the Indian economy grew at a six quarter high of 8.2% in the July to September 2025-26 from 7.8% in the first quarter of the fiscal and 5.6% in the second quarter of 2024-25. Sectors including agriculture, manufacturing, public administration and other services as well as financial services, real estate and professional services while a low base has also boosted growth from a statistical perspective.
“The full year outlook is now 7% or higher… Picture looks one of steady growth into the third quarter,” said Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Friday.
“The confluence of stable inflation, sustained public capex, and reform momentum positions the economy to navigate risks, as reflected in upward revisions to FY26 GDP growth projections by various agencies,” he underlined, adding that ongoing structural reforms including the implementation of Labour Codes, GST rate rationalisation, new Personal Income Tax regime and deregulation initiatives continue to enhance efficiency and competitiveness.
The GDP estimates come at a time when the economy is facing the brunt of the 50% US tariffs. However, private consumption has remained strong and grew by 7.9% in the second quarter of the fiscal and it is expected that even the third quarter will see strong growth with the GST rate cuts. Gross capital formation, which is a bellwether for investments also expanded by 7.3% in the second quarter, albeit at a slower pace than 7.8% in the first quarter.
Devendra Kumar Pant, Chief Economist, India Ratings pointed out that the impact of the US tariff has started reflecting in exports growth which grew 5.6% in the second quarter of the fiscal on a week base on 3.0% growth in 2QFY25, on the other hand imports grew 12.8% in 2QFY26.
Most analysts expect the economy to grow by 7.2% to 7.6% in FY26 but caution that the second half of the fiscal needs to be monitored due to the impact of the US tariffs and are factoring in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Monetary Policy Committee next week.
“On the whole the economy has done well with exports growing by 11% in Q2. Going forward the headwind will be the tariff impact which will get starker in Oct-Nov. The tailwind is the GST push which can negate and go beyond. This needs to be monitored going ahead,” said Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda. “Based on conservative growth for the second half but including the GST impact on consumption we estimate growth to be 7.4-7.6% for the full year,” he said.
Pant of India Ratings said the RBI may go for monetary easing of 25 to 50 basis points in the rest of FY26 to support nominal GDP growth. “GDP growth in FY26 may exceed Ind-Ra’s forecast of 7.0%,” he said.
Analysts also noted that while low inflation has helped keep prices low, it has impacted nominal GDP growth and could upset the fiscal deficit target of 4.4% of the GDP and tax collection targets. Nominal GDP grew by 8.7% in the second quarter of FY26 and by 8.8% in the first half of the fiscal as against the Budget estimate of 10.1%.
“While the increase in real GDP is encouraging, the slower nominal growth resulting from a significant decline in inflation could have adverse implications. For instance, it complicates the achievement of tax targets, which are based on a nominal growth assumption of 10.1% for the current fiscal year,” said DK Joshi, Chief Economist, Crisil.
The Chief Economic Adviser however said that the third and fourth quarter nominal GDP growth will be higher as the base effect fades away and inflation will be higher. “We are right now in the middle of reviewing the estimates for FY26 and FY27 and we should wait for that exercise rather than speculating,” he further said.
Disclaimer: Moneywealth research provides stock market news for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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