As TCS prepares to release its Q2FY26 earnings, analysts predict a slowdown in revenue and profit growth, primarily influenced by the BFSI sector’s resilience and ongoing challenges in consumer and pharma verticals. Key focus areas include H1B visa impacts and upcoming deal pipelines.
TCS Q2 results preview: IT bellwether Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) will report its July-September quarter (Q2FY26) earnings on Thursday, October 9. Experts expect the IT major to report softer revenue and profit numbers on a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) basis, while on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, the numbers may show minor growth.
Apart from the numbers, the focus will be on the impact of the H1B visa, deal TCV and pipeline, outlook on business verticals, and updates on the BSNL advance purchase order deal.
Notably, according to media reports, TCS has cancelled its post-earnings press conference for Q2 earnings, as the date coincides with Ratan Tata’s death anniversary.
The report by Business Line, however, added that the analyst call will take place on the same day.
TCS Q2: What experts expect
Dhanshree Jadhav, a technology analyst at Choice Institutional Equities, expects TCS to witness revenue growth of 1.7 per cent QoQ in dollar terms to $7,545 million in Q2FY26E.
“This growth will be driven by the resilience of the BFSI vertical, while the consumer and pharma verticals are likely to remain weak due to supply chain delays and higher R&D costs. In INR terms, we expect topline growth of 3.8% QoQ to ₹658 billion,” said Jadhav.
“We expect PAT to be down 1.6% OoQ to ₹125 billion in Q2FY26E. Margin is likely to stay flat QoQ at 24.6%, led by full quarter impact of the ramp-down of the low-margin BSNL deal in Q1FY26 as well as 2% INR depreciation against USD,” Jadhav said.
According to brokerage firm Motilal Oswal Financial Services, TCS may post a flattish revenue growth of 1% QoQ in CC terms, with international business growing nearly 1% and India flat.
The overall revenue may rise 1.8% YoY and 3.1% QoQ, while reported PAT may decline by 2.1 per cent QoQ, but rise by 5 per cent YoY, according to Motilal Oswal.
The brokerage firm expects TCS’s EBIT margin to decline by 20 bps QoQ due to the one-month impact of wage hikes, talent investments, lower utilisation, and constrained leverage.
“We believe pyramid and productivity gains remain key levers, but pricing pressure, client behaviour, and the GenAI transition signal a start of realignment as vendors adapt pricing and delivery models. Outlook on near-term demand and tech budgets, BFSI vertical, and deal wins are key monitorables,” said the brokerage firm.
Axis Securities expects TCS to report 3.5 per cent QoQ revenue growth driven by BFSI, Hi-tech, and cross-currency tailwinds. However, EBIT margin may decline by 21 bps due to wage hikes, higher investments, and lower utilisation.
Kotak Institutional Equities expects TCS’ net sales to rise 1.3% YoY and 2.6% QoQ, while reported PAT may grow by 6.7% YoY and decline by 0.4% QoQ.
“Ramp-downs in a few accounts and a weak demand environment will lead to moderate growth. We expect a stable EBIT margin; the impact of the wage revision, effective September 1, will be offset by the depreciation of the Indian rupee. P&L charge from employee separation is not baked into our estimates,” said Kotak.
Kotak underscored that the focus will be on the rationale for the planned separation of 12,000 employees, the impact on employee morale, and the associated costs.
“We expect investor focus on (1) reasons for underperformance in growth in developed markets and any potential share losses, (2) whether impact on demand resulting from imposition of tariff by the US subsided, (3) pace of GenAI adoption and deflationary impact on spends, (4) impact of GCC ramp-up on growth of companies and GCC as a growth lever, (5) H-1B dependence and plans for further derisking and (6) margin aspirations in light of elevated competitive intensity,” said Kotak.
Disclaimer: Moneywealth research provides stock market news for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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