ONGC hits 52-wk high,Oil India up 4%;what's driving upstream

ONGC and Oil India are key beneficiaries if Brent price remains elevated above USD 70/bbl as their CMP is discounting ~USD 65/bbl net crude realisation amidst low risk of windfall tax, said analysts.

Shares of Indian upstream oil companies rallied up to 4 per cent on the BSE in Tuesday’s intra-day trade. Individually, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) shares hit a 52-week high of ₹293.20, gaining 3 per cent. The stock surpassed its previous high of ₹293.15, touched on March 2, 2026.

Oil India shares mirrored the gains, jumping 4 per cent to make an intraday high of ₹492.30. The stock had touched a 52-week high of ₹524.15 on February 4, 2026. In comparison, the BSE Sensex was up 0.14 per cent at 77,413.75 at 10 AM.

What’s driving Oil India share price today?

Oil India and Indian Oil Corporation have jointly announced a new oil and gas discovery in an overseas exploration block in Libya (Area 95/96), where both companies hold a 25 per cent stake each as part of an Indian consortium. The block, located in the Ghadames Basin, has already seen multiple discoveries earlier, and this latest find comes from the sixth exploratory well, marking another successful discovery in the area.

The discovery has been officially recognised by Libya’s national oil authority, and further appraisal and testing will be carried out to assess the size of reserves and their commercial viability. This development strengthens both companies’ international exploration portfolios and supports their strategy to expand their global presence in the oil and gas sector.

Meanwhile, Brent crude was trading 1.24 per cent higher at $109.6 per barrel as the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) remained shut while the US examined Iran’s proposal to end the war.

JM Financial’s View on Oil & Gas Sector

Supply via SoH remains disrupted despite the ongoing two-week ceasefire due to continuing US blockade of Iranian ports and limited progress in talks over capping Iran’s nuclear goals. Separately, feedstock disruptions and attacks on Middle East/Russian refineries are likely to lead to a 6 million barrels of oil per day (mmbpd) cut in global refinery runs in April 2026, resulting in record high middle distillate cracks.

Analysts at JM Financial Institutional Securities believe oil prices may remain elevated at ~USD 85/bbl in the near term even after easing of the SoH blockage due to i) likely tightness in demand-supply gap as countries replenish and boost their strategic oil reserves, and due to gradual restoration of crude output as forced shutdown poses a risk to normalisation of output; ii) USD 5–10/bbl of geopolitical risk premium after the huge ~10mmbpd supply shock.

ONGC and Oil India are key beneficiaries if Brent price remains elevated above USD 70/bbl as their current market price is discounting ~USD 65/bbl net crude realisation amidst low risk of windfall tax, the brokerage firm said in its oil & gas sector report.

ONGC, Oil India Target Prices

Every USD 1/bbl rise in oil price boosts their earnings by 1–2 per cent. Analysts reiterate Buy on Oil India for a target price of ₹585 and ONGC for a target price of ₹340. The brokerage has assigned the targets based on its FY28 onwards Brent crude price assumption of USD 75/bbl (while CMP is discounting only ~USD 65/bbl of net crude realisation) and due to likely oil and gas output growth in the next two to three years.

“That said, we prefer Oil India as it could be a 15 per cent earnings compounding story driven by: i) strong 20–25 per cent cumulative output growth over FY27–29 aided; and ii) expansion of NRL refinery from 3mmtpa to 9mmtpa by the end of FY27,” analysts at JM Financial Institutional Securities said.

Disclaimer: Moneywealth research provides stock market news for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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