The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Friday retained its growth projection for India at 6.5 per cent for FY26 and FY27, holding that it is “in line with potential”.
“The growth in India had slowed more than expected, led by a sharper-than-expected deceleration in industrial activity,” the IMF said in the update to its World Economic Outlook, referring to the surprise 5.4 per cent growth in September quarter.
The IMF’s growth forecast is lower than that of the World Bank which on Thursday kept its growth projection for India unchanged at 6.7 per cent for FY26 and FY27, maintaining that the country will remain the fastest growing major economy for next two years.
“India is projected to maintain the fastest growth rate among the world’s largest economies, at 6.7 per cent in both FY2025/26 and FY2026/27. The services sector is expected to enjoy sustained expansion, and manufacturing activity is anticipated to strengthen, supported by government initiatives to enhance logistics infrastructure and improve the business environment through tax reforms,” the World Bank said in its flagship Global Economic Prospects report.
The First Advance Estimates of the National Statistics Office (NSO) meanwhile have estimated the FY25 growth to slow to a four-year low of 6.4 per cent, lower than Reserve Bank of India’s projection of 6.6 per cent growth in the current fiscal.
The IMF has projected the global growth to remain steady at 3.3 per cent in 2025 and 2026, broadly aligned with potential growth that has substantially weakened since the pandemic.
“The forecast for 2025 is broadly unchanged from that in the October 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO), primarily on account of an upward revision in the United States offsetting downward revisions in other major economies,” IMF said.
Growth projection for China in calendar year 2025 has been revised upwards by 0.1 percentage point to 4.6 per cent. “This revision reflects carryover from 2024 and the fiscal package announced in November largely offsetting the negative effect on investment from heightened trade policy uncertainty and property market,” the IMF report said.
The IMF cautioned that an intensification of protectionist policies such as a new wave of tariffs, could exacerbate trade tensions, lower investment, reduce market efficiency, distort trade flows, and again disrupt supply chains.
“Growth could suffer in both the near and medium term, but at varying degrees across economies,” it said.
The report said that renewed inflationary pressures could prompt central banks to raise policy rates and intensify monetary policy divergence.
In addition to risks from economic policy shifts, IMF said geopolitical tensions could intensify, leading to renewed spikes in commodity prices. “The conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine could worsen, directly affecting trade routes as well as food and energy prices. Commodity-importing countries may be particularly affected, with the stagflationary impact of higher commodity prices compounded by an appreciating dollar,” it added.
On the upside, the IMF however noted that global economic activity may enjoy a bounce if incoming governments can renegotiate existing trade agreements and forge new deals. “Momentum on other policy fronts could also lift growth. Many countries may embrace structural reforms to prevent divergence from their better-performing peers from becoming entrenched. Efforts to increase labor supply, reduce misallocation, enhance competition, and support innovation could raise medium-term growth,” it added.
IMF advised that policies need to rein in short-term risks and rebuild buffers while pushing ahead efforts to lift medium-term growth prospects, against the backdrop of elevated uncertainty. “In economies in which inflationary pressures are proving persistent and the risk of upside surprises is on the rise, a restrictive stance will need to be maintained until evidence is clearer that the underlying inflation is sustainably returning to target,” it added.
Disclaimer: Moneywealth research provides stock market news for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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