Technical View: Nifty needs to reclaim 25,300 for sustained uptrend, India VIX approaches 15-month low

India VIX fell sharply after a couple of days of upward movement, closing at 11.48 (the lowest closing level since April 26, 2024), down 4.17 percent. This decline brings more stability and confidence to the market.

Nifty Outlook for July 16

The Nifty 50 rebounded for the first time in five consecutive sessions, rising nearly half a percent on July 15, while the India VIX approaches a 15-month low. The index almost tested the 20-day EMA in intraday trade (25,250), although it closed just below the 25,200 hurdle. For a consistent upward journey in the coming sessions, the index needs to surpass and sustain the 25,300–25,350 hurdle zone. Until then, it may consolidate with 25,000 as support, according to experts.

The Nifty 50 opened flat and gained strength after the first hour of trading. It touched an intraday high of 25,245 and remained in an uptrend for the rest of the session, before closing 113.5 points higher at 25,196.

The index formed a bullish candle with a minor upper shadow on the daily charts, indicating an attempt to bounce back from the 25,000 support zone. However, there is still some pressure at higher levels. The Stochastic RSI is on the verge of a positive crossover in the oversold zone, while the RSI climbed above the 50 mark, though it remains in a negative crossover.

According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, Tuesday’s bounce could be a positive signal for bulls to make a comeback.

“A sustainable move above the immediate resistance of 25,350 could open up more upside in the near term. Immediate support is placed at the 25,000 level,” he said.

Weekly options data also suggest that the 25,200–25,250 zone is the near-term hurdle for the index, while support is observed at the 25,000 level.

The maximum call open interest was placed at the 26,000 strike, followed by the 25,500 and 25,200 strikes, with the maximum call writing at the 25,200 strike, followed by the 26,000 and 25,250 strikes. On the put side, the 25,000 strike holds the maximum put open interest, followed by the 25,200 and 25,100 strikes, with the maximum put writing at the 25,200 strike, followed by the 25,100 and 25,150 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty gained strength and formed a bullish candle with a minor upper shadow, following the Doji candlestick pattern formation in the previous session. The index rallied 241 points to close at 57,007.

The index found support near an upward-sloping trendline and staged a notable pullback, reflecting renewed buying interest at lower levels. Importantly, the index also moved above its 20-day EMA, signalling improving momentum within the banking space.

“The 56,800–56,700 zone will act as immediate support for the index. On the upside, the 57,200–57,300 zone will act as a crucial hurdle for the index. Any sustainable move above the 57,300 level will lead to a sharp upside rally up to the 57,700 level, followed by 58,200 in the short term,” said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

Meanwhile, the India VIX fell sharply after a couple of days of upward movement, closing at 11.48 (the lowest closing level since April 26, 2024), down 4.17 percent. This decline brings more stability and confidence to the market.

Disclaimer: Moneywealth research provides stock market news for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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